Michael Moore's Outlook on what a new Prime Minister could mean for private equity

Breaking news, since my last column. But very likely old news by the time you read this: Andy Burnham duly won the Makerfield by-election, and by a sizeable margin, so he is now an MP.

As I write this he has just been sworn in, following which he was quickly surrounded (by what appeared to be most of the Parliamentary Labour Party) for the obligatory selfie.

The symbolism is interesting. The swearing-in ceremony is highly personal, even if keenly watched by MPs of all parties. It is about the simple fact he is the new Member of Parliament for an area south of Wigan, in the north-west of England, whose constituents he will now represent in the House of Commons.

By contrast, the selfie, perhaps the defining cultural gesture of our age, underlined his imminent, or at the very least highly-anticipated, leadership of the Labour party, and the power that will flow from that status immediately. The signature on the Members’ Roll is one thing, the group shot with hundreds of fellow MPs, something quite different.

The backdrop, out of necessity given the numbers, was Westminster Hall, the vast medieval entrance way to Parliament. Amongst many other uses in the past (nearly) thousand years, it has hosted many royal banquets following on from the coronation of a new king or queen. Perhaps not quite the symbolism Mr Burnham would wish to emphasise.

Oh, yes, I nearly forgot – as Andy Burnham was on a train heading to London, Sir Keir Starmer resigned as Labour leader, creating the formal trigger for a party election, whose winner will also become the Prime Minister. Thus goes the British constitution.

The outcome seems clear. Wes Streeting, a potential rival, quickly announced his support for Mr Burnham. And the left of the party is somewhat diminished in influence. So it is hard to identify where the challenge might come from. (Columnist’s Curse will now massively shorten the odds on that happening, of course.)

So what? Is this a properly ‘big moment’, like Brexit, ten years old now and still causing waves, or the energy and inflation crises that followed the tragedy of the Ukraine invasion, or the impact of policies overseen by President Trump?

Or alternatively, is it just a lot of noise and not much will change?

Well, a few things need to be considered before making that judgement.

Opposition parties are already calling for a general election. 

It is part of the playbook on these occasions to declare ‘there is no mandate’. But in recent times, only one of the four changes of PM between elections led to a fresh general election. Frankly, of greatest relevance to us today is that no Labour MP will be angling for an election any time soon. So we can probably leave the issue here for now.

But what would a different approach to the 2024 manifesto look like?

The tax changes affecting private capital have been implemented, but there has been fresh debate in Labour circles about the future of capital gains tax, which we are already engaged on. Clearly, there is some squaring to be done between Labour’s aspirations to spend more, the sky-high nature of the UK’s debt and the high levels of taxation that already exist. Tough choices will need to be made. While keeping the UK internationally competitive for investors and individuals alike.

There are separate noises from some in Labour about who should be allowed to invest in the businesses that provide public services. Some of this is about infrastructure (such as water), but it is also relevant for areas like social care and education services where the private capital industry invests significantly. Again, we engage consistently on these areas and will continue to do so. We are confident about the scale of the public value we generate through this investment.

And the personalities around the cabinet table? 

Expect some big changes. Mr Burnham has rowed back from what some took to be a slightly dismissive attitude to bond markets, but the appointment of Chancellor in his government will be a key litmus test. Other roles in cabinet matter, of course, but this one is symbolic as well as substantive.

It has been less than magnificent for the UK to be heading towards its seventh Prime Minister in a decade. Soon we will know for sure who it it to be. But regardless of the churn, the private capital industry’s focus will not change - we will remain committed to sustaining the UK as the world’s largest hub of private capital expertise anywhere outside North America.

As ever, plenty to be getting on with.

Michael Moore
Chief Executive, UK Private Capital

This article was originally published on 24 June 2026 on the Private Equity News website here.